The Circular Momentum Show

Season 1 – IDC Series (Part III)
Host: Pete Paisley, Circular Momentum
Guest: Lara Greden, Sr. Director, Market Intelligence, IT Infrastructure, Software and Solutions

Host Intro

Pete Paisley:
Welcome to The Circular Momentum Show. I’m Pete Paisley, and today we’re rejoined by Lara Greden, Senior Director of Market Intelligence at IDC, to explore growth in the data center markets for ITADs.

We’re diving into some extraordinary market dynamics. IDC forecasts the global ITAD services market will grow from $10 billion this year to between $15 and $20 billion by 2029. Even more impressive, the used and refurbished data center asset market is expected to nearly double from just under $10 billion to almost $20 billion in the same period.

What’s driving this growth? The AI infrastructure wave is creating a perfect storm. NVIDIA’s data center revenue reached $41.1 billion in Q2, up 56 percent year over year, and the company is now shipping its Blackwell platform globally.

This raises a critical question for ITAD providers. Will previous generation GPUs like the A100, H100, and H200 be replaced at a faster pace? Could this create a massive wave of high-value remarketing opportunities?

Let’s find out. Lara Greden, welcome to the show.

Opening

Pete Paisley:
Welcome to The Circular Momentum Show, where we explore the intersection of technology, sustainability, and the circular economy. I’m your host, Pete Paisley.

Today begins a special two-part series focused on IDC’s latest data center server market forecasts and what they mean for the ITAD industry.

Joining me is Lara Greden, Senior Director of Market Intelligence at IDC. Lara, welcome.

Lara Greden:
Thanks for having me, Pete. Excited to dive into this.

Pete Paisley:
IDC forecasts the ITAD services market reaching $10 billion this year and growing to $15–20 billion by 2029. The used and refurbished data center asset market is also nearly doubling in that timeframe. These are significant numbers.

Lara Greden:
They are. What’s driving this isn’t just traditional refresh cycles. It’s a fundamental shift in how data centers are built and operated.

Segment 1: The AI Infrastructure Wave

Pete Paisley:
Let’s start with AI infrastructure. What are you seeing?

Lara Greden:
AI investments are expanding rapidly across regions. Growth is driven by hyperscalers, cloud providers, and AI-focused builders, primarily in the US and China. However, regional dynamics are shifting due to export controls and power availability, leading to increased growth in ASEAN countries and India.

Pete Paisley:
So infrastructure location is now influenced by power availability?

Lara Greden:
Exactly. AI workloads consume significant energy. A single GPU rack can require 10 to 20 times more power than traditional systems, forcing companies to rethink deployment strategies.

Pete Paisley:
Let’s talk about vendors. Companies like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo are reporting strong AI server growth, yet margins are under pressure.

Lara Greden:
That pressure comes from two factors. First, hyperscalers have strong negotiating power due to their scale. Second, OEM competition is intense, leading to aggressive pricing to secure market share.

Pete Paisley:
So they’re prioritizing long-term positioning over short-term profits.

Lara Greden:
Exactly. These relationships often lead to ongoing services and future deployments.

Pete Paisley:
NVIDIA reported $41.1 billion in Q2 data center revenue and is rolling out Blackwell globally. Do you expect older GPUs like A100, H100, and H200 to enter secondary markets quickly?

Lara Greden:
It’s possible. However, rather than immediate disposal, we’re likely to see a cascading model. High-end workloads move to Blackwell, while older GPUs are redeployed for inference and less demanding tasks.

Pete Paisley:
So these assets continue generating value.

Lara Greden:
Yes, and this is where ITAD providers can position themselves as lifecycle management partners.

Segment 2: Market Trends and Enterprise Shifts

Pete Paisley:
You mentioned the enterprise refresh wave has ended. What does that mean?

Lara Greden:
The broad refresh cycle for traditional infrastructure has largely completed. Organizations are now focusing on targeted investments, especially in AI-related systems.

Pete Paisley:
What about emerging architectures like ARM and GB200 systems?

Lara Greden:
These represent a shift toward more efficient computing models. ARM-based systems combined with GPUs offer improved performance and energy efficiency.

For ITAD providers, this means expanding expertise beyond traditional x86 systems to include new architectures, testing methods, and performance benchmarks.

Pete Paisley:
And sustainability trends?

Lara Greden:
Organizations are actively implementing energy-efficient technologies such as liquid cooling and renewable energy integration. Efficiency is now both an environmental and financial priority.

Segment 3: ITAD Market Implications

Pete Paisley:
Let’s talk about what this means for ITAD providers.

Lara Greden:
First, component harvesting is becoming critical. GPUs alone can carry significant value, and proper testing and remarketing capabilities are essential.

Pete Paisley:
So it’s no longer just about reselling complete systems.

Lara Greden:
Exactly. Advanced testing ensures reliability and market confidence.

Pete Paisley:
What about liquid cooling?

Lara Greden:
ITAD providers must invest in appropriate testing environments. Liquid-cooled systems require specialized handling, validation, and decommissioning processes.

Pete Paisley:
And telemetry data?

Lara Greden:
Telemetry is key. It provides insights into performance, usage, and health, enabling predictive lifecycle management.

Pete Paisley:
Is telemetry subject to data sanitization?

Lara Greden:
Yes. It often contains sensitive information such as IP addresses and system identifiers. Proper sanitization is required under standards like NIST 800-88.

At the same time, telemetry is valuable for asset grading. It helps buyers assess reliability and remaining lifespan.

Pete Paisley:
So ITAD providers must balance security with value extraction.

Lara Greden:
Exactly.

Closing

Pete Paisley:
Lara, before we wrap up, what can listeners expect in the next episode?

Lara Greden:
We’ll explore the specific services driving ITAD growth, analyze market segments, and examine why GPU-enabled infrastructure is growing faster than other categories.

Pete Paisley:
Lara Greden, thank you for joining us.

Lara Greden:
Thank you, Pete.

Pete Paisley:
And thank you to our listeners. The ITAD market is evolving rapidly, and the opportunities are significant. Join us next time for Part II of this series.

Host Outro

We appreciate Lara Greden from IDC for sharing these insights.

The ITAD industry is not just growing, it is transforming. With ITAD services projected to reach up to $20 billion and the data center remarketing market doubling, the opportunity is clear.

AI-driven infrastructure is creating a cascading reuse model, where assets continue generating value across multiple lifecycles.

For ITAD providers, success will depend on building capabilities in component harvesting, liquid cooling environments, and telemetry-based asset intelligence.

The window to act is now.

Join us next week for Part II, where we’ll explore the services driving this growth and why GPU-enabled server remarketing is leading the market.

I’m Pete Paisley. Thanks for watching The Circular Momentum Show.